Imagine playing a game for money in which marbles are drawn out of a bag and then replaced. 60% of the marbles are white. If one of the white marbles is drawn out, you win whatever you risked. The other 40% are blue. If one of the blue marbles is drawn, then you lose whatever you risked. This game has an expectancy of 20¢. That is, over a large number of trials, you’ll make 20 cents for every dollar you risk. That means it’s much better than any game you’ll ever play in Las Vegas. But what percentage of the people who play it make money?
Source: Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
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